Wellem Anselmus Teniwut
Abstract. Fisheries sector is the highest contributor for Maluku regional gross domestic product (GDP) and one of the largest contributor for national fish consumption and export behind South Sulawesi and just ahead of East Java. Despite of this achievement, wild-fish catch still has huge share on Maluku’s fisheries production and this is problem since Minister of Marine Affairs and Fisheries of Indonesia has issued policy to prevent the use of trawl operation which can affect total catch and in 2015 Indonesian government has revoked six major fishing companies and five of them were in Maluku. This study aimed to formulate a framework for local government to optimize the performance of fisheries sector in Maluku
province in short run and long run. This research uses quarterly time series data from 2004-2013 by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) method with its forecast features Impulse Response Factors (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Results of this research showed that in short period of time (for next 24 quarter) marine catch fisheries was the main contributor of fisheries sectors, but in long run, based on FEVD result, aquaculture sector emerged as the top contributor for fisheries sector whereas on the same period based on the result there was a sign of declining in trend from marine catch fisheries.
Key Words: revenue, fishery sector, Maluku, FEDV, IRF.