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Forecasting the welfare of fishermen and aquaculture farmers in Indonesia: Data Mining Approach

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Date

2019

Author

Wellem Anselmus Teniwut, Frischilla Pentury and Yuliana Anastasia Ngamel

Abstract. Fishermen and aquaculture farmers mostly living in the coastal region, with socioeconomic characteristics are low on education, a large number of family member in liability and still being dominated by men. Within said, it is necessary for the central and local government to maintain their economic policy tools to improve the welfare of fishermen and aquaculture farmers in Indonesia. In this study, fishermen and aquaculture’ term of trade used as the indicator of economic welfare. By using data mining technique multiple regression models, SVR and k-means clustering, we create a model to predict the purchasing power of fishermen and aquaculture farmers in Indonesia. We used 11 attributes included monthly data of micro and macroeconomic indicators from 2007-2016. The result showed the best model is multiple regression model compare to SVR based on R2 and RMSE. Furthermore, the result also indicated that based on microeconomic indicators consumption, the growth of fisheries sector people will increase the purchasing power of fishermen and aquaculture farmer, where macroeconomic factors inflation and CPI negatively affect fishermen and aquaculture welfare. Based on clustering analysis also indicated that three clusters mostly separated by the rate of inflation and gini ratio. 

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